Can AI achieve human-like intelligence by 2030, Google predicts

A recent research paper by Google DeepMind has raised significant concerns about the potential risks associated with the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). According to the study, AGI—commonly defined as AI that matches or surpasses human intelligence—could emerge as early as 2030 and may pose existential threats to humanity if not properly regulated and controlled.

The paper underscores the severe consequences that AGI could bring, stating that such advanced systems have the potential to cause “permanent harm,” including the possible extinction of humanity. While the authors do not provide a detailed explanation of how AGI might lead to such outcomes, they emphasize that the broader question of what constitutes severe harm should be decided collectively by society, rather than by a single company.

Shane Legg, one of DeepMind’s co-founders and a co-author of the paper, outlines that the real focus should be on proactive measures to manage and minimize potential threats. The research highlights the importance of preparing safety frameworks and oversight mechanisms before AGI becomes a reality.

The paper categorizes the risks associated with AGI into four key areas: misuse, misalignment, mistakes, and structural risks.

• Misuse refers to the possibility of individuals or groups using AGI technologies for harmful purposes.
• Misalignment involves AGI systems acting in ways that conflict with human values or intentions.
• Mistakes represent unintended failures in AI operation or decision-making.
• Structural risks include societal-level impacts, such as economic disruption or power concentration.

DeepMind emphasizes its own strategy to mitigate these risks, focusing particularly on misuse prevention—ensuring AGI is not used with harmful intent. The paper also calls on other AI companies and stakeholders to adopt responsible development practices and foster open dialogue with the public and policymakers.

As the world approaches a technological turning point, the study acts as a stark reminder that while AGI holds transformative potential, it also demands careful oversight to avoid irreversible consequences.